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Unintended consequence of elections
ELECTIONS are always interesting, but it pays to look as closely as one can into the results and their very often unintended consequences.
No doubt the Liberal Democrats in Mid Sussex are congratulating themselves on achieving parity with the Conservatives. Each party now holds six divisions. However look into those results a little more deeply and some facts emerge that should give the LDems food for thought.
In the two East Grinstead divisions no UKIP candidate stood, resulting in both being won by Conservatives.
In Imberdown next door there was a UKIP candidate, whose vote reduced the Conservative total enough to let the LDem win. So the principle of unintended consequences operated with 412 anti EU UKIPers allowing the election of a pro EU Lib Dem.
Worse in Haywards Heath East where a BNP man enjoyed the support of 168 citizens. This was again enough to reduce the Conservative vote to allow a LDem to win by 43.
So again the unintended consequence was for an extremist party to facilitate the election of a LDem lady who must be embarrassed to know that she partly owes her election to the actions of the BNP.
Almost identical in Burgess Hill West where 476 loyal BNP folk allowed the election by just 50 of another LDem lady. Neither what they were seeking, nor surely what Heather Ross wanted.
Then look at the total votes for all of Mid Sussex. Con = 20,483; LD = 15,479; Lab = 2,128; Green = 3,001 (more than Labour!!); UKIP&BNP = 1,274.
The first past the post election ended up with six Con and six LDems. However, if the proportional representation favoured by the Liberal Democrat Party had been in operation there would have still been six Conservative councillors, but only four LDems.
Both the Labour Party and the Greens would have had one each! So PR would have damaged LDems while first past the post got them six councillors.
Although we have looked in some detail at results in Mid Sussex, it is clear that the thing has happened at a number of other division across the county – Broadwater, Bognor West,Worthing Pier, Bersted, Bewbush, Worthing East, Littlehampton East, Bognor East.
There could be as many as 11 divisions where the intervention of UKIP candidates has provided aid to the Liberal Democrats and to a considerable extent explains their increase from 16 to 21 councillors.
Finally, can we say that there will be many Conservative county councillors who will regret that Margaret Collins will not be gracing our county council meetings; a doughty long serving Lib Dem she, despite not the best of health, has worked tirelessly for her town, county and party (and probably in that order) for many years.
BILL ACRAMAN
Conservative county councillor for Worth Forest
PETER GRIFFITHS
Conservative county councillor Hurstpierpoint and Bolney
County Hall
Chichester
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Weather for Horsham
Saturday 04 February 2012
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